EUR/USD forecast

Yesterday, 11:34

Today chart

Forecast for this week, 03.05 - 07.05. H4 graph

Forecast for this month, April - May. Daily graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair has left the “B-B+” correctional uptrend, which speaks about development of a downtrend at the moment with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 – the fifth wave’s target.

Level 1.3200 offered a fair support for the pair and now we may expect a slight correction towards resistance level 1.3490, from where the downtrend development will be resumed. A more confident downtrend will begin after the pair goes under levels 1.3270 and 1.3200, after that it will head to intermediate support 1.3090 (“F” trendline) and then to target level 1.2870.

Uptrend development may begin if the pair rises above resistance 1.3584 (leaves the “F-F+” channel), after which it will head to intermediate resistance 1.3770, and if it gets over it the next upside target will be set to level 1.3960.

Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)

The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).
Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Forecast for the next year, 2010-2011. Monthly graph (dated 03/22/10)

The fact that the pair has quit the “P-P+” uptrend (after going below level 1.4550) granted an opportunity to drop to level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of “head and shoulders” figure). Taking to account the picture at weekly graph, this downwave is supposed to be completed at level 1.2870.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. The downtrend persists and the pair gets to level 1.2750. Next, in case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.2750, we may expect it to drop as low as to level 1.0000.

2. Alternative variant. Upon getting to level 1.2750 there is a possibility of rebound followed by an uptrend development. In case the pair rebounds from 1.2750 and rises above level 1.3100, it will get to 1.4600.

EUR/USD forecast

Forecast for this week, 12-16. H4 graph (dated 04/012/10)

Forecast for this month, April. Daily graph (dated 04/05/10)

Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)

The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).
Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Forecast for the next year, 2010-2011. Monthly graph (dated 03/22/10)

The fact that the pair has quit the “P-P+” uptrend (after going below level 1.4550) granted an opportunity to drop to level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of “head and shoulders” figure). Taking to account the picture at weekly graph, this downwave is supposed to be completed at level 1.2870.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. The downtrend persists and the pair gets to level 1.2750. Next, in case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.2750, we may expect it to drop as low as to level 1.0000.

2. Alternative variant. Upon getting to level 1.2750 there is a possibility of rebound followed by an uptrend development. In case the pair rebounds from 1.2750 and rises above level 1.3100, it will get to 1.4600.

EUR/USD forecast @ 29 March 2010

Forecast for the this week, 29 -02. H4 graph (dated 03/29/10)

1.3380, 1.3328

Resistance:
1.3493, 1.3538

Forecast for the next month, March - April. Daily graph (dated 03/22/10)
By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave. Now the drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. If the downtrend continues and the pair drops below level 1.3500 (out of the “B-B+” trend boundaries), the bearish sentiment will be amplified. In such case the pair will get to level 1.2870.
Level 1.3285 is an intermediate support, which may evolve a correction to resistance 1.3520 followed by rebound and downtrend’s continuation with the drop target seen at 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then goes above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Support:
1.3285 (intermediate)

Resistance:
1.3800 (key)

Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)
The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).
Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Forecast for the next year, 2010-2011. Monthly graph (dated 03/22/10)
The fact that the pair has quit the “P-P+” uptrend (after going below level 1.4550) granted an opportunity to drop to level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of “head and shoulders” figure). Taking to account the picture at weekly graph, this downwave is supposed to be completed at level 1.2870.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. The downtrend persists and the pair gets to level 1.2750. Next, in case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.2750, we may expect it to drop as low as to level 1.0000.

2. Alternative variant. Upon getting to level 1.2750 there is a possibility of rebound followed by an uptrend development. In case the pair rebounds from 1.2750 and rises above level 1.3100, it will get to 1.4600.

Comment of the day

The pair couldn’t manage to rise above key level 1.3800 (forecasted as the level of the 4th wave end) and dropped below level 1.3720, causing the further downside to level 1.3645. US basic rates survey will be released on Tuesday - this is a very important piece of news for the market, which is likely to become a catalyst of leaving the sideways trend. Basic rates value will probably remain unchanged, but what will be important is how many of the FRS members will vote for rates % increase.

Considering the above, there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below level 1.3605, it will get to level 1.3520. And in case of further downside we should expect the pair to leave the sideways trend and drop to 1.3434 and lower.
2. In case the pair rises above 1.3710, the upside to 1.3800 will be probable (although there is a strong resistance at 1.3735).

H4 graph (from 15.03.10)

The pair is trading along the uptrend having the upside target seen at level 1.3800 (level of the 4th wave completion). This level has been reached, leading the pair to some kind of crossroad. There are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair continues upside above level 1.3800 (“B+” trendline), the next target will be set to level 1.3970 (2 February high).
2. In case the correction heads down below level 1.3800 and the pair gets under 1.3680, it will continue moving down with the target seen at 1.3555 and then even lower. However, it would be better to consider this (downside) variant a little later, on 16 March, when US basic rates survey will be released.

Daily graph (from 05.03.10)

The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..

Weekly graph (from 15.03.10)

The pair is trading along the downtrend, having the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the neckline). The 4th correctional wave is being formed now. It has its top at levels 1.3800 - 1.3970. In case the pair rises above level 1.4000 there is a probability of downtrend’s cancellation. If so, the upside target will be set to level 1.4600. Meanwhile, I expect the market to turn from the levels stated above with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th downwave).

Monthly graph (from 31.01.10)

The fact that the pair has left the “P-P+” uptrend revealed a potential of dropping to level 1.2750. In general, if the pair manages to retreat below the “neckline” (level 1.2600/50), strategically, it will get to level 1.0000.

Taking into consideration the picture over weekly graph, the pair is certainly trading along a downtrend and it set its first drop target at level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of the “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure) – see weekly graph.

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EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph

There are signs of an emerging correction.
In case the pair rises above level 1.3720 (“a” trendline), we may expect an upside to level 1.3950. This forecast remains in effect until the market drops below level 1.3550. I’m seeing no alternative variants so far.

Daily graph

The pair got to its target level 1.3555. Obviously (taking into consideration the complex analysis of the markets), a correction should be started soon. In case the pair rises above 1.3720, we may expect an upside to level 1.3950.
If we examined the current trend in terms of Elliot waves, it would be found in the fourth wave now and the fifth wave would be following having the target at level 1.3285 or 1.2800 (depending on the trend’s strength). Level 1.3950 (in its approximate boundaries) is the turning level.

Alternatively, if the pair rises above level 1.4100, it will reach resistance 1.4650.

Weekly graph (from 31.01.10)

The fact that the pair has left the “D-D+” uptrend revealed a potential of dropping to supports 1.3555–1.3285. Those supports are of equal strength and at the moment it’s really hard to tell from which support the market will turn in future. But the fact is the pair will get to 1.3555 at least. In case it will continue to drop after that, we should expect hitting 1.3285.

At that point we may consider a possibility of correction to level 1.4650, followed by drop to 1.2750.

Monthly graph (from 31.01.10)

The fact that the pair has left the “P-P+” uptrend revealed a potential of dropping to level 1.2750. In general, if the pair manages to retreat below the “neckline” (level 1.2600/50), strategically, it will get to level 1.0000.

Taking into consideration the picture over weekly graph, the pair is certainly trading along a downtrend and it set its first drop target at level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of the “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure) – see weekly graph.

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EUR/USD forecast 31 January 2010

H4 graph

The pair reached the target level 1.3880 stated in the previous forecast. And the market’s momentum proved to be so strong that while the pair is holding ground below level 1.3960, the drop target will be found at level 1.3555 and the resistance will be at 1.3960.

Daily graph

The pair retreated below level 1.4300, which put an end to the correction within the “B-B+” channel and revealed a potential of resuming the downtrend having the drop target set at 1.3550. Level 1.4300 is a resistance from now on.

Weekly graph

The fact that the pair has left the “D-D+” uptrend revealed a potential of dropping to supports 1.3555–1.3285. Those supports are of equal strength and at the moment it’s really hard to tell from which support the market will turn in future. But the fact is the pair will get to 1.3555 at least. In case it will continue to drop after that, we should expect hitting 1.3285.

At that point we may consider a possibility of correction to level 1.4650, followed by drop to 1.2750.

Monthly graph

The fact that the pair has left the “P-P+” uptrend revealed a potential of dropping to level 1.2750. In general, if the pair manages to retreat below the “neckline” (level 1.2600/50), strategically, it will get to level 1.0000.

Taking into consideration the picture over weekly graph, the pair is certainly trading along a downtrend and it set its first drop target at level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of the “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure) – see weekly graph.

 H4 graph

After rapid upside lately the pair didn’t manage to update level 1.5061, which speaks about a potential of continuation of sideways trend’s forming within the range between levels 1.5050 (support) and 1.4875 (resistance).

Currently the market is closing at a temporary support level 1.4955, but as long as it stays below 1.5050 and above 1.4955 it resides a neutral zone.

Therefore, there are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4955, it will head to a key support 1.4875. Next, in the prospects, if the market will manage to get under that support, it will go to an intermediate support 1.4790, and further to 1.4650 (basically, the market tends to go this way).
2. If the pair rises above resistance level 1.5050, it will get to level 1.5125, and probably even to 1.5200.

Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.4955 with the target at 1.4875.
Buy above 1.5050 with the target at 1.5125.

Daily graph (from 11.17.09)

The pair is trading within a range between levels 1.5061 (current high) and 1.4710 (support).

1. In case the pair drops below 1.4710, it will get down to support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Getting under 1.4710 also implies possible drop below 1.4550, so, if the pair gets under 1.4550, it will set its target at level 1.4130.

2. If the pair rises above level 1.5061, the next growth target will be set at resistance level 1.5285 (on my graphs it is a key level over all time frames).

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

EUR/USD forecast

How to use forecast

18 November 2009

 H4 graph

The pair is trading within triangle (H-L). The range of the triangle is seen between levels 1.4990 (resistance) and 1.4825 (support). Taking this into consideration, events may evolve in two variants:

1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4825 (“L” trendline), it will get to support 1.4710 (blue trendline). Getting under level 1.4825 also implies possibility of dropping at support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Level 1.4710 may offer a temporary support; in case of rebound from it the pair will find resistance at level 1.4825, after which it will test 1.4710 again. If the pair will eventually pass level 1.4710, it will get down to key support 1.4550.

2. The pair fails dropping below level 1.4825. In this case the market will be trading at the same range until Variant #1 takes effect or until the pair overcomes resistance 1.4990 (“H” trendline). In the latter case the pair will reach level 1.5061 (current high) and, if upside persists, it will head to 1.5200.

Daily graph (from 11.17.09)

The pair is trading within a range between levels 1.5061 (current high) and 1.4710 (support).

1. In case the pair drops below 1.4710, it will get down to support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Getting under 1.4710 also implies possible drop below 1.4550, so, if the pair gets under 1.4550, it will set its target at level 1.4130.

2. If the pair rises above level 1.5061, the next growth target will be set at resistance level 1.5285 (on my graphs it is a key level over all time frames).

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).