My personal Forex trading log

EUR/USD forecast @ 29 March 2010

Forecast for the this week, 29 -02. H4 graph (dated 03/29/10)

1.3380, 1.3328

Resistance:
1.3493, 1.3538

Forecast for the next month, March - April. Daily graph (dated 03/22/10)
By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave. Now the drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. If the downtrend continues and the pair drops below level 1.3500 (out of the “B-B+” trend boundaries), the bearish sentiment will be amplified. In such case the pair will get to level 1.2870.
Level 1.3285 is an intermediate support, which may evolve a correction to resistance 1.3520 followed by rebound and downtrend’s continuation with the drop target seen at 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then goes above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Support:
1.3285 (intermediate)

Resistance:
1.3800 (key)

Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)
The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).
Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Forecast for the next year, 2010-2011. Monthly graph (dated 03/22/10)
The fact that the pair has quit the “P-P+” uptrend (after going below level 1.4550) granted an opportunity to drop to level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of “head and shoulders” figure). Taking to account the picture at weekly graph, this downwave is supposed to be completed at level 1.2870.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. The downtrend persists and the pair gets to level 1.2750. Next, in case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.2750, we may expect it to drop as low as to level 1.0000.

2. Alternative variant. Upon getting to level 1.2750 there is a possibility of rebound followed by an uptrend development. In case the pair rebounds from 1.2750 and rises above level 1.3100, it will get to 1.4600.

Euro testeaza nivelul rezistenta @ 1,35 si ca atare ieri si azi am mers cu retracement-ul punind 2 pozitii long din care am castigat cumulat +31 pipsi verzi +1,4508 $ ; randamentul contului real este de +21,24% 7.94538 $ .

Joi am pus doar 3 pozitii short pe eurodolar in zona 1,3333-55 cu care am castigat cumulat +48 pipsi verzi +1,42280 $ ; randamentul contului real este de +17,37% 6.49458 $ .

Astazi am pus doar o pozitie long pe AUD/USD cu care am castigat +12 pipsi verzi +14,76 centi,o pozitie short pe EUR/USD deschisa aseara s-a inchis la primul target +34 pipsi verzi +32,64 centi ; randamentul contului Marketiva este de +13,56% 5.07178 $ .

Astazi am intrat doar cu 3 pozitii short pe eurodolar cu care am castigat cumulat +22 pipsi verzi +27,06% ; randamentul contului este de +11,53% 4.31208 $ .

Update:Am mai pus 2 pozitii pe eurodolar,una long si una short cu care am castigat cumulat +11 pipsi verzi +28,57 centi ; randamentul a urcat la +12,29% 4.59778 $ .

Astazi am folosit doar 3 pozitii short pe cable(am vindut la ruperea nivelului suport din zona 1,5200-1,5175)cu ajutorul carora am castigat cumulat +38 pipsi verzi +48,72 centi ; randamentul contului Marketiva a urcat la +10,81% 4.04148 $ .

Comment of the day

The pair couldn’t manage to rise above key level 1.3800 (forecasted as the level of the 4th wave end) and dropped below level 1.3720, causing the further downside to level 1.3645. US basic rates survey will be released on Tuesday - this is a very important piece of news for the market, which is likely to become a catalyst of leaving the sideways trend. Basic rates value will probably remain unchanged, but what will be important is how many of the FRS members will vote for rates % increase.

Considering the above, there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below level 1.3605, it will get to level 1.3520. And in case of further downside we should expect the pair to leave the sideways trend and drop to 1.3434 and lower.
2. In case the pair rises above 1.3710, the upside to 1.3800 will be probable (although there is a strong resistance at 1.3735).

H4 graph (from 15.03.10)

The pair is trading along the uptrend having the upside target seen at level 1.3800 (level of the 4th wave completion). This level has been reached, leading the pair to some kind of crossroad. There are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair continues upside above level 1.3800 (“B+” trendline), the next target will be set to level 1.3970 (2 February high).
2. In case the correction heads down below level 1.3800 and the pair gets under 1.3680, it will continue moving down with the target seen at 1.3555 and then even lower. However, it would be better to consider this (downside) variant a little later, on 16 March, when US basic rates survey will be released.

Daily graph (from 05.03.10)

The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..

Weekly graph (from 15.03.10)

The pair is trading along the downtrend, having the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the neckline). The 4th correctional wave is being formed now. It has its top at levels 1.3800 - 1.3970. In case the pair rises above level 1.4000 there is a probability of downtrend’s cancellation. If so, the upside target will be set to level 1.4600. Meanwhile, I expect the market to turn from the levels stated above with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th downwave).

Monthly graph (from 31.01.10)

The fact that the pair has left the “P-P+” uptrend revealed a potential of dropping to level 1.2750. In general, if the pair manages to retreat below the “neckline” (level 1.2600/50), strategically, it will get to level 1.0000.

Taking into consideration the picture over weekly graph, the pair is certainly trading along a downtrend and it set its first drop target at level 1.2750 (the “neckline” of the “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure) – see weekly graph.

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Astazi am intrat cu 3 pozitii long pe eurodolar in zona noii rezistente 1,3750-1,38 si am castigat deocamdata +20 pipsi verzi +27 centi,cu care am ridicat randamentul contului la +9,5% 3.55428 $ .

Astazi am luat doar 2 pozitii long pe eurodolar ,prima dimineata @ 1,3690 cu care am castigat rapid +18 pipsi verzi +23,94 centi iar a doua la debutul sesiunii de tranzactionare din State @ 1,3737 cu care am mai castigat +12 pipsi verzi +21,24 centi ; randamentul contului real a urcat la +7,8% 2.91562 $ .

Astazi in fine eurodolarul s-a hotarit sa revina pe uptrend rupind rezistenta majora din zona 1,37-1,3737 si per total avind puse in piata 7 pozitii,5 pe eurodolar si respectiv cite una pe aussie si pe yen am apasat din greseala(eram cam grabit si surescitat de price action pe mai toate perechile pe care le urmaream) butonul Close All Positions si m-am ales cu o pierdere totala de -170 pipsi rosii -2,38 $ ; randamentul contului real a coborit la 6,88% 2.45422 $ .