Apetitul pentru risc al investitorilor(sau poate doar diversificarea activelor dinspre dolarul american (si) catre euro)a facut ca trendul sa continue spre o noua testare a nivelului 1,51 asa ca am intrat long cu 4 pozitii din care am castigat cumulat +47 pipsi verzi 9,03 centi(+0,09R cumulat) ; randamentul contului real este de +13,09% 1.48243 $ .

Dupa ce ieri pietele financiare au primit socul stirii ca

“Faptul ca marile corporatii din Dubai – probabil unul din cele mai importante simboluri ale euforiei globale din anii trecuti – nu au reusit restructurarea liniilor de finantare pe parcursul acestui an in conditiile in care economiile si pietele internationale au notat un reviriment remarcabil reprezinta un veritabil semnal de alarma vizavi de sustenabilitatea evolutiilor recente. In ce masura situatia din Dubai poate capata masa critica necesara generarii unui debut al imploziei speculatiilor globale „carry trade” din acest an, insa, ramane de vazut.”

si astfel a inceput o corectie moderata in toate pietele,eurodolarul coborind de la maximul anului @ 1,5145 atins in 25 noiembrie pina @ 1,4827 astazi asa ca am intrat cu 2 pozitii long buy on dips si am castigat cumulat +33 pipsi verzi 25,41 centi(+05,8R cumulat pentru ambele pozitii) ; randamentul contului real este actualmente de +12,29% 1.39213 $ .

Euro testeaza din nou pragul psihologic de la 1,5 fata de dolarul american asa ca am intrat cu 2 pozitii long din care am castigat cumulat +27 pipsi verzi 22,44 centi(+0,3533R cumulat pentru cele 2 pozitii ) ; randamentul contului real este de +10,05% 1.13803 $ .

Ieri seara am pus o pozitie long pe eurodolar @1,4975 si pe care am inchis-o @1,4994 castigand +19 pipsi verzi 0.0551 $ (+0,2119R) ; randamentul contului real este de +8,07% 0.91363 $ .

EUR/USD forecast

How to use forecast

18 November 2009

 H4 graph

The pair is trading within triangle (H-L). The range of the triangle is seen between levels 1.4990 (resistance) and 1.4825 (support). Taking this into consideration, events may evolve in two variants:

1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4825 (“L” trendline), it will get to support 1.4710 (blue trendline). Getting under level 1.4825 also implies possibility of dropping at support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Level 1.4710 may offer a temporary support; in case of rebound from it the pair will find resistance at level 1.4825, after which it will test 1.4710 again. If the pair will eventually pass level 1.4710, it will get down to key support 1.4550.

2. The pair fails dropping below level 1.4825. In this case the market will be trading at the same range until Variant #1 takes effect or until the pair overcomes resistance 1.4990 (“H” trendline). In the latter case the pair will reach level 1.5061 (current high) and, if upside persists, it will head to 1.5200.

Daily graph (from 11.17.09)

The pair is trading within a range between levels 1.5061 (current high) and 1.4710 (support).

1. In case the pair drops below 1.4710, it will get down to support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Getting under 1.4710 also implies possible drop below 1.4550, so, if the pair gets under 1.4550, it will set its target at level 1.4130.

2. If the pair rises above level 1.5061, the next growth target will be set at resistance level 1.5285 (on my graphs it is a key level over all time frames).

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Ieri am plasat 3 pozitii short pe eurodolar din care am castigat cumulat +59 pipsi verzi 17,93 centi(+0,3R cumulat pentru toate cele 3 pozitii),cu care am readus randamentul contului real la +7,58% 0.85853 $ .

Astazi am pierdut -96 de pipsi -37,44 centi cu o pozitie long pe eurodolar luata @ 1,4910 si inchisa @ 1,4814 pentru ca nu mi s-a confirmat scenariul bullish pentru o noua testare a rezistentei de la 1,5050(pierdere -1R),si ca atare randamentul contului real a scazut din nou la doar +6% 0.67923 $ .

Astazi am profitat de efectul stirilor asupra investitorilor astfel dupa discursul lui Ben Bernanke prin care a sustinut dolarul :

FX360.com - “The U.S. dollar rallied against the euro rallied on the heels of Ben Bernanke’s comments as the Fed Chairman pledges to use Fed policy to “ensure that the dollar is strong.” He indicated that the central bank will monitor the dollar closely which implies that other nations may be pressuring the U.S. government to stop the dollar from falling. Coming on the heels of President Obama’s trip to Asia, the timing of the Federal Reserve’s support for the dollar suggests that this may be move to reassure their Asian partners. Consider this verbal intervention by the Obama Administration, which is one of the few things that could actually lead to a more significant rally in the U.S. dollar. We have previously said that the only thing that could stop the dollar from falling would be coordinated verbal intervention by G20 nations but now the Fed is preempting that by throwing their support behind the greenback.

Also, talk about currencies is typically relegated to the Treasury Secretary and therefore traders should be particularly worried by the fact that these comments are coming from the mouth of a central banker. There is a good chance that Bernanke ran these comments by Obama and Geithner and so this should represent the Administration’s official support for the dollar. If it was up to the Federal Reserve, they would probably prefer to see further dollar weakness as it was only last week that we heard a Fed President say that the move in the dollar is not disorderly.

However Bernanke’s comments on the economy do not support a recovery in the dollar and may be part of the reason why the dollar has not strengthened against all of the major currencies. The Fed Chairman’s tone was relatively pessimistic. He sees headwinds and believes that future setbacks are possible. According to Bernanke, unemployment is much too high, credit is constrained and demand has fallen significantly. Economic activity remains weak and significant economic challenges remain but moderate economic growth is still expected for next year. Based upon Bernanke’s tone, the central bank has more reasons to keep monetary stimulus in place for as long as they can. Therefore from an interest rate perspective, the dollar carry trade should remain in place. Yet, the U.S. government is trying to trigger some two-way action in the dollar by suggesting that they could take measures to stem the currency’s decline but we believe that these are nothing more than open threats. Therefore the relief rally in the dollar may be temporary.”

a variat in citeva minute vreo 100 de pipsi in jos si in sus si am reusit sa intru cu 2 pozitii long din care am castigat cumulat +24 pipsi verzi 10,94 centi ; randamentul contului este acum de +9,3% 1.05363 $ .

Astazi am plasat doar un ordin long @ 1,4844 (putin mai sus de zona suport zilnic) pe care l-am inchis @1,4857 castigand +13 pipsi verzi 10,01 centi(+0,5R);randamentul contului real este de +8,34% 0.94423 $.

Astazi am luat 2 pozitii,una long pe eurodolar si una short pe yen din care am castigat cumulat +1 pips dar am pierdut 0,927 centi(pe eurodolar am castigat +21 pips 16,17 centi +0,6468R iar pe yen am pierdut -20 pips 17,097 centi -1R);randamentul contului real este de +7,45% 0.84413 $ .